Cognitive modeling of municipal social and economic development
The relevance stems from the complexity of managing the weakly structured socio-economic systems of municipalities, where a multitude of divergent interests must be taken into account. Existing models are unable to reflect this complexity fully, creating a need for new methodologies. The scientific problem lies in the methodological gap between the need for a comprehensive territorial analysis and the lack of a tool that formalises the interrelationship between the system's key components, including resources, rules, values, and multi-agent interactions. The research methods are based on cognitive modelling. The work includes conceptualisation, construction of structural-functional diagrams and integration of the model with AI tools for hypothesis verification and predictive calculations. Research results: a concept of a cognitive model was developed, the core of which is a structural-functional scheme of five indicator groups: resources, actors, mechanisms, values, rules; a system of six principles for structuring the model (e.g., management logic, Pareto principle) was defined, enabling its decomposition into 17 spheres of local government activity; the dynamic logic of managed development through the “As Is – What Is Being Done – To Be” cycle is described; practical significance is confirmed by the model's implementation as the core of a specialized SaaS platform for strategic decision support, where it is undergoing testing. Conclusions: the research proposes a holistic methodology for the analysis and predictive modeling of municipal development. The developed model integrates objective data and socio-cultural context, and its implementation in an industrial platform confirms its practical value for enhancing the substantiation of managerial decisions.
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The article was prepared with the support of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “The Fund for Assistance to the Development of Small Forms of Businesses in the Scientific and Technical Field” (The Fund for Assistance to Innovations) within the framework of the implementation of the Artificial Intelligence Federal Project, The Digital Economy of the Russian Federation National Program (competition “Razvitie-AI-III”, contract No.48GRCEIIS12-D7/79055 dated August 01 2022).