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DOI: 10.18413/2408-9338-2025-11-4-0-6

Transformation of higher education demand structure in Russian regions
as a social response to the challenges of technological sovereignty

 In the face of serious external challenges, sanctions pressure, and limited access of the Russian Federation to the global technology market, achieving technological sovereignty becomes a key state priority. The higher education system plays a crucial role in this process, serving as the foundation for developing human resource potential. This potential is shaped by a multitude of factors, among which the key one is the prospective student's choice of specialty and their professional path. The authors focus on the regional aspects of the transformation of demand for higher education. The aim of the research is to study the structural changes in regional demand for higher education services, particularly in STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) as the foundational educational areas for achieving technological sovereignty, and to assess the societal response and engagement in addressing the tasks of ensuring technological sovereignty. The research hypothesis is that regions which are donors of human capital and regions with developed high-tech industries demonstrate a faster response to the state policy of import substitution and ensuring technological sovereignty. The analytical data base consisted of available statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Ministry of Science and Higher Education for the years 2014, 2018, 2021, and 2024.To achieve the stated goal and test the hypothesis, a methodology for assessing structural changes in the demand for higher education in leading regions has been developed: 1) The structure and dynamics of enrollment of first-year full-time students at Russian public universities were studied, both overall and in the selected regions, by fields of education, with a breakdown into state-funded and contract (fee-paying) places, focusing on the STEM education segment; 2) The diversification of programs (the number and proportion of available specializations within each field of education) was determined; 3) The demand for programs was assessed (the prestige of programs by field of education, based on a conditional ranking).The research results show a high concentration of scientific and technological potential in Russia. Despite an overall 18% increase in STEM enrollment, its growth rate is lower than that for humanities and medical specialties. The main growth in interest in STEM is observed in the contract (fee-paying) form of education (+157.7% in mathematics and +63.7% in engineering on average across Russia), which indicates the growing prestige of these specialties, interest from the perspective of investment in human capital, and is also driven by shifts in the strategic positioning of universities and the transformation of marketing strategies. At the same time, regions show divergent trends: Moscow is increasing its lead over other Russian regions, which are implementing a strategy of specialization. For example, Sverdlovsk Oblast demonstrates a focus on engineering sciences but has weaker positions in natural sciences. Furthermore, it is noted that applicants' greatest interest, both on average across Russia and in the regions, lies in social sciences and humanities, as evidenced by conditional admission competition data, yet a structural shift in favor of STEM fields has been recorded. Overall, it is noted that leading regions respond more flexibly and adaptively to the challenges of ensuring technological sovereignty from the perspective of changing demand for higher education programs; however, the response is heterogeneous and depends on the region's specialization. The obtained results emphasize the need for a differentiated regional educational policy to successfully ensure technological sovereignty.

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