2408-9338Research result. Sociology and Management2408-933810.18413/2408-9338-2026-12-4-0-34297SOCIOLOGY OF CULTURE AND SPIRITUAL LIFE<strong>Possibilities of combining regression models and simulation modeling in the study of emigration attitudes&nbsp;of Russian youth&nbsp;</strong><strong>Possibilities of combining regression models and simulation modeling in the study of emigration attitudes&nbsp;of Russian youth&nbsp;</strong>MukhametovDaniyar РустямовичMukhametovDaniyarDombrovskayaАnna Yu.DombrovskayaАnna Yu.aydombrovskaya@fa.ruOgnevAlexander СергеевичOgnevAlexander202612400

The study aimed to define the correlation between social, economic and political events in Russia and the scale of narratives about Russian youth emigration on social media. The authors explore the potential of combining social media analysis and surveys to understand the factors shaping emigration attitudes among Russian youth. Its scientific relevance stems from the need to advance methodological debates on integrating new and traditional approaches in socio-political research, as well as to address the negative societal effects of emigration-related media narratives circulating&nbsp;in the Russian segment of new media. The core scientific problem lies in the necessity&nbsp;of integrating diverse methodological tools to achieve a comprehensive analysis of&nbsp;youth emigration potential. Methods. The authors employ regression modeling based on the relevant social media panel data and multimodal simulation modeling of informal interview&nbsp;with&nbsp;Russian&nbsp;youth&nbsp;data.&nbsp;The&nbsp;regression&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;reveals&nbsp;a&nbsp;significant&nbsp;link between the dynamics of emigration-related social media discourse, youth engagement in these flows, and socio-economic indicators in Russia. Meanwhile, simulation modeling uncovers the subjective meanings and motivations &ndash; both rational and irrational &ndash; that drive young people to consider relocating abroad. Conclusions. The combined use of these methods identifies the external factors that influence attitudes towards emigration and sheds light on the internal motivational structure of these attitudes. This offers new ways to mitigate the negative effects of digital emigration discourse. Based on these findings, the study suggests ways to reduce the negative impact of emigration narratives on Russian social media.

The study aimed to define the correlation between social, economic and political events in Russia and the scale of narratives about Russian youth emigration on social media. The authors explore the potential of combining social media analysis and surveys to understand the factors shaping emigration attitudes among Russian youth. Its scientific relevance stems from the need to advance methodological debates on integrating new and traditional approaches in socio-political research, as well as to address the negative societal effects of emigration-related media narratives circulating&nbsp;in the Russian segment of new media. The core scientific problem lies in the necessity&nbsp;of integrating diverse methodological tools to achieve a comprehensive analysis of&nbsp;youth emigration potential. Methods. The authors employ regression modeling based on the relevant social media panel data and multimodal simulation modeling of informal interview&nbsp;with&nbsp;Russian&nbsp;youth&nbsp;data.&nbsp;The&nbsp;regression&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;reveals&nbsp;a&nbsp;significant&nbsp;link between the dynamics of emigration-related social media discourse, youth engagement in these flows, and socio-economic indicators in Russia. Meanwhile, simulation modeling uncovers the subjective meanings and motivations &ndash; both rational and irrational &ndash; that drive young people to consider relocating abroad. Conclusions. The combined use of these methods identifies the external factors that influence attitudes towards emigration and sheds light on the internal motivational structure of these attitudes. This offers new ways to mitigate the negative effects of digital emigration discourse. Based on these findings, the study suggests ways to reduce the negative impact of emigration narratives on Russian social media.

emigration media narrativesemigration attitudesRussian youthdigital traces of emigration intentionsregression modelsmultimodal simulation modelingemigration media narrativesemigration attitudesRussian youthdigital traces of emigration intentionsregression modelsmultimodal simulation modeling

The article was prepared based on the results of research carried&nbsp;out using budgetary funds under the Financial University&#39;s state assignment.

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