Certainty about the future is one of the important indicators of people's lives, which is formed by a combination of factors, primarily living conditions. Work, income, housing conditions and health status determine the quality of life and influence its perception. Confidence in the future as an indicator of social well-being is measured among the population as a whole and among different social groups, but is practically not considered in ethnic communities, including the Bashkirs and Tuvans. From the point of view of family policy, it is also important to study the perception of the future in families with children. Previously, it was found that the presence of minor children reduces confidence in the future among representatives of both ethnic groups. The purpose of the article is to identify the reasons for less confidence in worse living conditions. The analysis is based on survey data conducted in Bashkortostan and Tuva in 2021. The results of the study show that the objective characteristics of living conditions in both republics are confirmed by the subjective assessments of the people living in them. The Tuvans gave lower assessments of various aspects of these conditions than the Bashkirs. A comparison of the living conditions of families with and without minor children showed that those with children are better off in terms of employment, they are more confident in the stability of their main source of income. At the same time, their life is much more complicated due to low incomes, worsening financial situation over the past year. They are less satisfied with their living conditions, assess their health status worse, and Tuvans more and more often experience limitations in their daily life because of it. All of the above together creates a more negative background for the perception of the future for families with minor children, giving rise to uncertainty.